Conflict follows the currents of scarcity, and NATO must navigate a world where the most dangerous battles are fought over what no longer flows freely. These behaviours signal a shift in how conflict will unfold: not only through conventional force, but through the manipulation, withholding, and weaponization of essential resources. This article explores three plausible scenarios – oil dominance, water ascendancy, and a dual‑pressure world – to map how resource hoarding could shape the next generation of conflict in the Middle East and beyond, and what this means for NATO’s strategic posture in the decades ahead.
