What the Iran War Means for China’s Taiwan Calculus

How is the Iran war reshaping China’s strategic calculations toward Taiwan? Nguyen Bao Han Tran examines how the conflict is reinforcing two competing lessons for Beijing: weaker actors can impose serious costs through asymmetric drone warfare, while prolonged U.S. military engagement elsewhere may strain allied deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. As Middle Eastern and Asian security dynamics become increasingly interconnected, this article argues that China may become more cautious about full-scale invasion while finding blockade, gray-zone coercion, and other strategies below the threshold of war increasingly attractive.

After the Lull: Why Renewed Chinese Military Pressure on Taiwan Matters

How should NATO respond to growing strategic links between the Taiwan Strait and the Euro-Atlantic theatre? In this article, Nguyen Bao Han Tran examines China’s calibrated military pressure on Taiwan and argues that NATO must prepare for the indirect consequences of a Taiwan contingency, from defence-industrial strain to cross-regional deterrence challenges.

The Importance of Taiwanese Sovereignty: Beyond Economics and Military Strategy

Recent media coverage of the West’s involvement in mitigating tensions between China and Taiwan has generally focused on the same handful of questions: Has China increased its aerial and naval drills near Taiwan’s shores, and why? What is the likelihood of a direct military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan’s sovereignty? What Read More…

Special Report: Preserving the Peace in the Taiwan Strait under President-Elect Lai Ching Te

Abstract:  A staunch advocate of the Republic of China (Taiwan)’s political self-determination, Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party won the presidential election in Taiwan, leading some experts to speculate that the country could be inching closer towards an armed conflict with China. How can NATO member-states and security partners help strengthen Taiwan’s national resilience Read More…

China’s Hybrid War on Taiwan: Fighter Jets to Fruit Politics

Over the past year, the heightened tensions between China and Taiwan have led many to expect an imminent military invasion. But the dispute has grown increasingly sociopolitical in nature. In this article, Arash Toupchinejad explores the cultural undertones of the public perceptions towards cross-strait tensions and how China relies on a hybrid war strategy to suppress Taiwan’s desire for sovereignty.

Why Taiwan’s Same Sex Marriage Debate Matters

In response to a constitutional court decision that mandated marriage equality, Taiwan held a referendum which showed popular opposition to adjusting current marriage laws. Adam Zivo explains how this debate evolves might have some surprising implications on East Asian geopolitics.