On April 21, 2010 Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev signed a deal extending the lease allowing Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to be stationed in Crimea, Ukraine for another 25 years beyond its original expiry date of 2017, with a possible further 5-year-extension. In return, Russia agreed to grant Ukraine a discount on imports of Russian gas. This complicated formula gives Ukraine approximately $40 billion worth of gas discounts.
These economic benefits are certainly a boost for Yanukovych’s campaign, as Ukraine struggles with a recession that suffered a contraction of its economy by 12% in 2009 alone. Ukraine needs cheap gas given that Kyiv’s policy of subsidizing domestic gas sales has been putting a heavy strain on its treasury. Ukraine will also be collecting more rent from the fleet’s Crimean facilities, for which Russia is already paying $90 million yearly.
Despite some of the economic benefits of the deal, the presence of the Black Sea fleet, accompanied by its many soldiers and intelligence operatives, may potentially allow Moscow to exert pressure on Kyiv. After all, the port is located in a region whose ethnic majority is Russian and possesses strong pro-Soviet sentiments. Ukraine itself is politically split between the Russian-speaking east and Ukrainian-speaking west. When previous Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko for example applied for NATO membership, Moscow responded by hinting at Ukraine’s disintegration; arguing that its presence was an affront to Ukraine’s sovereignty and a destabilizing factor in Crimea, forcing Yushchenko to vow to eject Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
Thus it comes as no surprise that this renewed lease sparked considerable controversy. On April 25th, thousands of opposition demonstrators took to the streets of Kyiv and marched in front of the parliament building. Opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, the former prime minister who lost to Yanukovych in the presidential election run-off in February 2010, told protesters that the ratification of the treaty must be prevented at all costs, accusing the new President of embarking on a path of destroying Ukraine’s national interest. The heated issue even caused a brawl to break out in the Ukrainian parliament ahead of the parliamentary vote to ratify the agreement, complete with egg-throwing and the detonation of smoke bombs. On April 27th, Ukrainian MPs approved the deal with 236 votes, 10 over the minimum required for ratification.
Marina Luzhikova, Moscow editor of the Regional Strategic Research Magazine, believes that the Ukrainian-Russian agreement was reached hastily with little consideration for its international ramifications, pointing to Ukraine’s territorial dispute with Romania over the Black Sea’s oil-rich Snake Island. Luzhikova notes that Romania has expressed concern that Ukraine may turn to an outside power to help protect its interests. To avoid such misunderstanding, Luzhikova notes that the Ukrainian leadership should act within a legal framework and reach various international agreements, as opposed to a bilateral one, within that framework.
However, Russia defines security in the continued presence of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. “It is very important to Russia that this base stays there because it is an element of the security system. It seems to me it is not in anyone’s way, but rather maintains the status quo in the Black Sea basin,” Medvedev said while meeting with students at the Taras Shevchenko National University in Kyiv. Russia is “a peaceful country” and has no intention to use its Black Sea fleet, against “adjacent states,” while disregarding the fact that the Black Sea Fleet has been mobilized as recently as August of 2008, when Russia deployed part of the fleet towards Georgia’s separatist Abkhazia region during the August 2008 South Ossetia War. The main guarantee of this is Russia’s involvement in the “system of international relations, including [Russia’s] commitments within UN, as well as commitments under the international conventions, including under the Helsinki Final Act of 1975…Will we ignore the international law? Of course we will not, because it’s not favorable for Russia. Russia is a huge country, which has multiple interests and it will affect us if we start dropping out from the international community”, Medvedev added.
Ukraine has had to play a delicate balancing act between its powerful eastern neighbour and its ambitions to join western-European institutions, namely the European Union but also NATO. Relations between Ukraine and NATO began formally with the 1997 Charter on a Distinctive Partnership. Ukraine’s pro-Western leadership had been pursuing NATO membership since 2004, when President Viktor Yushchenko came to power. In January 2008, Ukraine became a candidate to join the NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) however Russia’s reactions to the plan were quite hostile.
“I am always very cautious about changes in the security system. You know the Russian position: We don’t like the idea of NATO expanding any further. It’s not that we are against NATO, we are partners with NATO, but it’s still a military bloc, in which Russia does not participate. The closer NATO is to our borders, the less comfortable we are,” Medvedev has said.
Yanukovich has all but squashed the country’s prospects of joining NATO. According to numerous independent polls conducted over the past few years, Ukrainian public opinion on NATO membership is low, with the majority against joining the military alliance and many identifying it as a threat. Yanukovich campaigned on a promise to end the NATO bid and he disbanded the government commissions focused on advancing this bid soon after his inauguration.
However, Yanukovich promised not only to keep Ukraine out of NATO, but also despite pursuing co-operation with Russia, out of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. Yet, the renewed lease on the Black Sea fleet has invited accusations from the opposition and critics that this is “the most explicit sign yet of his new administration’s tilt towards Moscow.” It is true that Yanukovich has refrained from explicit overtures to NATO, avoiding antagonizing Russia while exploring possibilities of EU membership. Yanukovich appears to be re-balancing the country’s position vis-à-vis the West and the East.
“Our strategic aims are not changing. Ukraine will integrate into the European Union,” Agence France Presse quoted Yanukovich as saying on 22 April. “My aim is that in the triangle of EU-Russia-US, Ukraine will find its place and its national interests. We have to find equilibrium.”
“We want to move towards the west. But the best way of doing this is to get gas from the east,” a foreign ministry spokesman said. “The Black Sea fleet isn’t any threat to Ukraine’s independence.”
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that the agreement by Moscow and Kyiv to extend the Russian Black Sea Fleet lease in the port city of Sevastopol does not represent a Ukrainian drift toward Russia, but rather should be seen as an attempt to balance the country’s foreign policy. “I think that given Ukraine’s history and geographic position, that balancing act is a hard one, but it makes sense to us,” Clinton added.
Even though it is unlikely that Ukraine will pursue NATO membership in the current situation, the option appears to remain open. When asked if it is was still possible for Ukraine to become a member of NATO if it has a Russian naval base on its soil for another 25 years, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen responded: “We decided that Ukraine, and Georgia by the way, will become members of NATO, provided of course that they show a wish, and provided that they fulfill the necessary criteria.” A necessary domestic precondition will also have to be the public support of both the Russian and Ukrainian –speaking parts of the country.
By Monika Wyrzykowska
Further Readings: Uproar in Ukraine parliament as Russian Black Sea fleet deal approved, Russian Fleet Concerns NATO’s Black Seam Members, Medvedev: Russia will not Use Black Sea Fleet Against Neighbours, Medvedev: Black Sea Fleet important to regional, European Security, Ukraine extends lease for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, Black Sea Fleet Deal Stirs Kiev Storm, Press Conference by NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen at the Informal meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers – Tallinn, Estonia
*Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely of the author’s, and do not represent those of The NATO Council of Canada.
