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What the Iran War Means for China’s Taiwan Calculus
How is the Iran war reshaping China’s strategic calculations toward Taiwan? Nguyen Bao Han Tran examines how the conflict is reinforcing two competing lessons for Beijing: weaker actors can impose serious costs through asymmetric drone warfare, while prolonged U.S. military engagement elsewhere may strain allied deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. As Middle Eastern and Asian security dynamics become increasingly interconnected, this article argues that China may become more cautious about full-scale invasion while finding blockade, gray-zone coercion, and other strategies below the threshold of war increasingly attractive.




